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The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View

Economic growth in emerging markets softened in the last quarter of 2018, primarily due to a decline in consumption growth, especially in India, China, and Mexico. Industrial production and exports haven’t shown much improvement lately either. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) suggests no upward momentum for China and continuing weakness in India. After strengthening in January, the outlook for Brazil shows some moderation, yet it remains robust compared to its recent history, while Mexico continues to see its growth picture softening. The good news is that consumers in most markets still remain confident, which, if translated into spending, would help the momentum. Overall, emerging market growth is likely to slow to 3.5 percent this year from 3.8 percent last year.

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